Oddsmakers have never completely given up on the Baltimore Ravens.
The Ravens never sunk too far in the Super Bowl odds, even as they started 1-5. They're -145 to win the AFC North despite being two games behind the Pittsburgh Steelers. And this week is a friendly spread for the Ravens.
The 4-4 Minnesota Vikings are coming off a good win at the Detroit Lions and getting no respect at all this week. They're 4-point home underdogs against the Ravens at BetMGM. We're about to find out if oddsmakers' faith in the Ravens is justified.
Everyone knows the reasons for the Ravens' slow start. The defense was bad at the beginning of the season and then injuries hit hard. Lamar Jackson, arguably the best player in the NFL, missed games. He's back now. And the Ravens have a few extra days of rest after an easy win over the Dolphins in Week 9. Presumably, Jackson should be back to full strength this week. And he threw four touchdowns last week in his return.
Just because Jackson is back doesn't mean the Ravens are a sure thing. They dug a huge hole early in the season. The defense has looked better lately but there should still be some skepticism. And it's not easy to go on the road and beat a Vikings team that just made the Lions look bad.
This will be a test of the Ravens going forward. If they blow out the Vikings, they should be favored in every game until at least Week 16. They can get on a roll. But the Vikings are fully capable of keeping this close, and they're the pick at +4. We'll find out on Sunday if the Ravens are truly back. And if the Vikings are capable of being in the NFC North race for the duration, too.
Here are the picks for Week 10 of the NFL season, with odds from BetMGM:
Broncos (-9) over Raiders
Since beating the Patriots in Week 1, the Raiders have lost their three road games by 17, 34 and 31 points. It's tough to take a big favorite on a Thursday night, but the Raiders aren't an underdog that is worth backing most weeks.
Falcons (+6.5) over Colts
This is an early game in Berlin, Germany, which often makes for some strange outcomes. The Falcons aren't a bad team. Had their kicking situation been better, they might have at least two more wins. The Colts are very good and clearly the superior team, but it's a lot of points for an international game against a decent opponent.
Bills (-9.5) over Dolphins
There could be a letdown for the Bills, coming off a huge win over the Chiefs. But backing the Dolphins would be a miserable experience. It's a team that looks like it wants the season to be over already.
Saints (+5.5) over Panthers
The thought that the Saints are a feisty underdog is dissipating fast. They have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games. In the last three, they haven't come within eight points of the spread. However, the Panthers aren't as good as their record. You won't find a metric that says otherwise. It's hard to trust the Saints, but we'll close our eyes and take the points.
Texans (+1) over Jaguars
The news that Davis Mills will start at quarterback for the Texans shifted the favorite from Houston to Jacksonville. It's understandable. But every week, we're seeing that Houston might be the best defense in the NFL. Also, the Jaguars have not been impressive for most of the season. They aren't as good as their record. C.J. Stroud being out with a concussion caused the line to move, but Mills doesn't have to be great. He just needs to do enough to support the Texans' defense.
Bears (-4.5) over Giants
The Giants might be fading. They've failed to cover in two straight games, and neither was all that close. The Bears are far from perfect but they're not getting much respect for a team that has won five of six.
Browns (-2.5) over Jets
It's hard to tell how a team will react after being sellers following the trade deadline. But it's hard to believe the Jets players will be that excited after seeing Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner get shipped off, with others like Breece Hall wondering why they are still around. It's very, very hard to rely on the Browns as a road favorite. However, even removing any nebulous Jets motivation angle: They are a 1-7 team that just traded two of its five best players.
Buccaneers (-2.5) over Patriots
This is one of the best games of Week 10. The Patriots are a very good team and have a win at the Bills, but it's OK to point out they have played by far the softest schedule in the NFL to date. If they can go on the road and beat a 6-2 Buccaneers team coming off a bye, it will be their second quality win of the season.
Seahawks (-6.5) over Cardinals
The Cardinals are a better team in the present with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. That's the uncomfortable truth for the Cardinals. But going on the road to face this Seahawks team is a tough task for anyone. We're seeing, week by week, that the Seahawks are one of the best teams in the NFL.
49ers (+4.5) over Rams
The last time these teams played, the 49ers overcame a multitude of injuries to win. They've taken on more injuries since then. But San Francisco has been overcoming its injury adversity all season, and can keep this home game close.
Lions (-8) over Commanders
The Commanders are coming off a game in which they lost quarterback Jayden Daniels, their defense was completely exposed and any realistic hope of making the playoffs was dashed. Last week the Lions suffered a home loss and will be motivated to bounce right back. This could get ugly.
Steelers (+3) over Chargers
The Chargers have been a different team without left tackle Joe Alt, who is done for the season. Alt is very good, and the Chargers don't have enough quality tackles to replace him and Rashawn Slater, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in training camp. Here's a simple way to see Alt's value:
Chargers' record when Alt played more than half of the snaps: 4-0 straight up, 3-0-1 against the spread
Chargers' record when Alt played fewer than half of the snaps: 2-3 straight up, 0-5 against the spread
Now the Chargers get a Steelers defense that looked as good as it has all season, with the pass rush finally coming alive. The Steelers are a flawed team but this seems like a tough assignment for the Chargers.
Eagles (+2.5) over Packers
The wrong team is favored here. The Packers maybe are just a team that plays up or down to the competition, but they also might simply not be as good as they looked in the first two games of the season. The Eagles haven't been as great as last season, but the reaction to their start this season is a bit overblown. The Eagles still might be the best team in football and for this game, they're coming off a bye.
Last week: 8-6
Season to date: 75-60-2
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