The box office kicker

The league has a new Legatron. Jacksonville kicker Cam Little has a chance to crush the record for the longest successful field goal. He drilled a 70-yarder against the Falcons during preseason and comfortably clears 72 yards during warmups.

The NFL insists preseason stats don’t count towards the archive. Fine. But if there’s one number that should make the official ledger, it’s Little’s effort against the Falcons. It’s not as though he was booting it through second-string uprights.

The 22-year-old should get a chance to turn his asterisk title into the real deal during the regular season. Justin Tucker holds the current record at 66 yards, which seems like light work for Little. Whether new Jags head coach Liam Coen will be comfortable calling for a 70-yarder during a real game remains to be seen.

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Coen may only rely on Little’s distance when it’s needed for a go-ahead score. Even if Coen is conservative, Little’s range still gives the Jaguars’ offense another unorthodox weapon. With the new touchback rule, Jacksonville are only one conversion away from being in potential field-goal range. That warps the math for opposing defenses, who already have to worry about Brian Thomas Jr, Travis Hunter, and Dyami Brown ripping the lid off their coverage. Defenses adjust their approach when an offense approaches field-goal range. What is that line of demarcation against Little? Second-and-five from the 40?

Little hitting from 70 yards this season is plausible. And he could convert from even further. Mark 21 December on your calendars. The Jags are heading to Denver, where the high altitude has helped multiple kickers break records. Given a chance, Little could shatter Tucker’s mark.

Patrick Mahomes watch

Every season, Mahomes breaks a fresh set of records. Up next: Aaron Rodgers’s mark as the fastest quarterback to 250 career passing touchdowns (121 games).

Mahomes sits at 245 after 112 regular-season games. That leaves him with five touchdowns to tie, six to own the record outright. He should have it wrapped up by September. In 23 career September games, Mahomes has thrown 62 touchdowns, averaging an absurd 2.7 per game. Based on that average, he would be on course to break the record by Week 2, when the Chiefs host the Eagles.

There has been some consternation about the Chiefs’ offense. Last season’s unit was the weakest of Mahomes’s career. Despite another trip to the Super Bowl, KC’s offense was a slog. An undermanned offensive line capsized the team’s vertical passing game, forcing Mahomes to move the ball in five-yard increments. The Chiefs finished last in the league in explosive play rate last season, despite adding speedster Xavier Worthy in the draft.

Those same questions linger this year. The new-look offensive line may take time to gel, and Rashee Rice has been suspended for six games.

Rookie left tackle Josh Simmons will be crucial. If he can offer league-average play, the Chiefs should be able to squeeze more out of the passing game. If he struggles, they will be forced to return to the stilted offense that ground through last season.

With Mahomes and Andy Reid on board, it’s best to bet on the former. Outside the offensive line, the Chiefs have focused on adding more speed to their offense, adding former Patriots flameout Tyquan Thornton to their receiving corps. Worthy and Thornton clocked the two fastest times in the preseason, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Fifth-round pick Brashard Smith, a former wide receiver turned running back, has brought some extra sizzle to the offense. The big-picture outlook is clear: put burners on the perimeter and let Travis Kelce work underneath as Mahomes’ comfort blanket.

Regardless of any teething problems along the offensive line, putting explosive receivers around Mahomes is as good a plan as any in the sport. The Rodgers record will be the first to fall, but Mahomes is also chasing a fourth-straight Super Bowl appearance, a feat matched only by Jim Kelly and the Bills.

The 500 club

Twenty-two quarterbacks have crossed the 500-yard passing threshold in a single game. Despite all the rule changes to aid the passing game, none has topped Norm Van Brocklin’s 554 yards from 1951. Could this be the year?

It’s tough. The change to the touchback rule will decrease the number of drives where an offense has to drive the length of the field. The formula required to break the record involves a team’s defense being cooked (quickly) and then abandoning its run game. It’s possible, but Van Brocklin’s record is probably safe.

More achievable is the mark for the most 500-yard games. Ben Roethlisberger owns the record with three. And unlike most quarterbacks who’ve sniffed 500, Roethlisberger’s performances weren’t garbage-time sugar highs. Which brings us to Joe Burrow.

Burrow already has two 500-yard games to his name. If the Bengals are to contend for the AFC North, he will probably need another couple. Sure, they have kept Trey Hendrickson, but the Bengals’ defense remains a sieve on paper. There are holes all over the secondary and question marks across the front. Unless new DC Al Golden can patch together a serviceable unit, the Bengals will only go as far as Burrow’s arm (and the hands of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins) can take them.

Chasing Thomas

Speaking of the Bengals’ receivers. Michael Thomas’s 149 receptions in 2019 still tops the record books. Cooper Kupp came close with 145 in 2021.

Chase is next in line. If the Cincinnati defense is as porous as projected, the Bengals will rely on their passing attack to keep them in games. That’s bad news for the win-loss column, but good news for Chase and his co-star Tee Higgins. The duo combined for 200 receptions and 2,619 yards last season, the highest total of any tandem in the league.

The Bengals will need a repeat. Only four duos in NFL history have crossed 3,000 yards combined. Burrow has enough auxiliary weapons to share the love, but Chase and Higgins will still receive the highest dose of targets. Higgins averages 75 catches a year, while Chase posted a career-high 127 last season. Breaking Herman Moore and Brett Perriman’s 3,174 yards combined from 1995 will be a stretch, but hitting 3,000 yards is possible. And if the offense is forced into pass-heavy scripts, Chase could have a shot at breaking Thomas’s mark.

There are other contenders. The Vikings will start the season with a depleted receiving corps, which will (somehow) bump up Justin Jefferson’s league-leading target share. Don’t sleep on Amon-Ra St Brown, either. The Detroit receiver finished last year with 115 receptions. With a new offensive coordinator and improved depth at receiver, St Brown may not see the same volume this season. But the Lions’ faltering offensive line could force them to be more of a pass-first unit than they have been previously under Dan Campbell.

The unwanted sack record

Of all the disappointing moments of Aaron Rodgers’ Jets career, this one will have stung: he passed Tom Brady for the most career sacks taken. Rodgers enters his 18th season with 571 sacks.

Rodgers leads the way, but Russell Wilson is closing in. Wilson lurks just 11 sacks behind Rodgers, despite being drafted seven years later and starting 49 fewer games. It’s a fun subplot to the two aging vets trying to crank out one more season. Can Rodgers keep his sack total low enoughto have Wilson surpass him before the Giantsyank Wilson for Jaxson Dart?

Go for it, Keisean

The NFL’s revised kickoff rule has been one of the most underdiscussed aspects of the preseason. As noted, a touchback will now be spotted at the 35-yard line. The hope is that it will rejuvenate the return game. The static start remains, with the league looking to limit full-throttle collisions.

Last season, the first with a static start, there were only seven return touchdowns. Teams were happy to concede a touchback rather than put the ball in play. But with the touchback moving five yards up the field, the risk-reward calculus has changed. Already, teams, most notably the Panthers, have dabbled with creative strategies to neuter kick returns. But the expectation is that there will be more action.

As the league grapples with strategies around the rule change, we should see an early explosion in the return game. Devin Hester still holds the single-season record with six non-offensive touchdowns, all coming on returns. No returner in the league is Hester. And despite the changes, the current rules still stifle returns compared with Hester’s era. But the rule change has increased the odds of a returner threatening Hester’s number.

If one player can do it, it’s Green Bay’s Keisean Nixon.

Nixon is a returner and a starting corner, playing in a disguise-laden defense designed to force takeaways. Although he has just three career interceptions, the Packers’ scheme gives corners a chance to punish quarterbacks’ mistakes. To even sniff Hester’s record, a player needs to start on defense and be an electric returner. Nixon checks both boxes.

For his part, Nixon no longer wants to return kicks. “I’m kind of over it; I don’t really want to do it no more,” Nixon told ESPN in January. “CB1 is not returning kicks”. That’s understandable. But returning kicks is valuable again. History beckons, Keisean!

Unlike pick-sixes, turning returns into scores is a discrete skill. Interception totals typically match the skill of a defender, but turning those interceptions into touchdowns is more about luck, timing and the other 10 guys on defense – unless you’re Deion Sanders. DaRon Bland holds the record for pick-sixes in a season (five), in a year in which he was roasted in coverage snap-to-snap.

Nixon won’t have a Bland-level season. But if he can snag a pick-six or two, he would have the best shot at Hester’s crown – so long as the Packers can convince him to return kicks.