First Polls After Trump Conviction: Warning Signs For Republican


Former President Trump And Fellow Conservatives Address Annual  CPAC Meeting 


 Nearly half of Independents said they want former President Donald Trump to drop his 2024 campaign after a New York jury found him guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in his criminal hush money case, according to a new poll released Saturday, following another poll Friday that showed other warning signs for the Republican candidate.

More than half of respondents in a Morning Consult survey said they “strongly” or “somewhat” approve ... 


Morning Consult conducted on Friday found 54% of registered voters either “strongly” or “somewhat” approve the guilty verdict, and though 49% said Trump should be sentenced to probation, over 44% who said he should be given a prison sentence (68% of respondents said he should be fined).

Roughly 49% of Independents in the poll said they believe Trump should drop out of the presidential race, just one day after Trump was convicted in his criminal trial in New York.

The survey also found 15% of likely Republican voters believe Trump should drop his campaign, while 8% of self-proclaimed Trump supporters in the survey said the same.

Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted just hours after Trump’s guilty verdict was read also found 56% of Republican voters said the conviction does not change their vote, while 35% said they were more inclined to vote for Trump after the verdict.

Still: 10% of Republicans in the Reuters/Ipsos poll, which surveyed over 2,500 U.S. adults, said they were less likely to vote for Trump in the wake of the conviction, while a quarter of Independent voters said the same—18% of Independents said they were more likely to vote for Trump after the conviction.


Among GOP voters in the Morning Consult poll, 77% said Trump’s conviction was politically motivated, along with 43% of Independent voters who said the same.


Trump was convicted on all 34 felony charges of falsifying business records in New York, stemming from a reimbursement for a hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels to conceal an alleged affair ahead of the 2016 presidential election. Trump, who denied the affair, claimed the reimbursement to his former fixer Michael Cohen was purely a legal expense, and has repeatedly decried the case as a “witch hunt,” claiming without evidence that New York prosecutors worked with President Joe Biden to charge Trump. The former president said this week he plans to appeal the conviction. He faces up to 136 years and $170,000 in fines if given the maximum sentence.


Trump was indicted in four separate criminal cases since launching his 2024 presidential campaign, and previous polling has indicated those cases could potentially cost him the election (Trump has pleaded not guilty on all charges). Roughly 46% of respondents in an April Quinnipiac poll said they believe Trump committed a crime by concealing hush money payments, while 46% of respondents in an April New York Times/Siena poll said Trump should be found guilty in the hush money case. In an AP/Norc poll released in May, roughly half of respondents said Trump would not be fit for office if convicted in New York.


Trump and Biden remain neck-and-neck, according to multiple recent polls, though third-party candidates have thrown a wrench in Biden’s hopes for reelection. A NPR/PBS/Marist poll released Thursday found Biden maintains a narrow 50% to 48% edge over Trump in a head-to-head matchup, though Trump would defeat Trump by four points when third-party candidates, such as Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., are included. Biden also appears to be losing support in key swing states, with a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll finding Trump leading Biden in seven swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin). Biden narrowly won six of those states in 2020, with the exception of North Carolina.


Source:  First Polls After Trump Conviction: Warning Signs For Republican