Week 11 of the NFL season began with another less than memorable Thursday night game, as the New England Patriots beat the New York Jets 27-14 as 13.5-point favorites.

What will the rest of the weekend have in store for bettors?

Our NFL handicapping team of Ed Feng and Matt Jacob combine to give their best bets for Week 11 of the NFL season. This article will be updated throughout the weekend.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM and are subject to change.

Washington Commanders vs. Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 47.5)in Berlin

Jacob: Tua Tagovailoa has been very much like a box of chocolates this season: You never know what you’re gonna get.

For example, the Dolphins’ quarterback has failed to eclipse 205 passing yards seven times in 10 games (falling short of 180 yards five times). His yardage totals in Miami’s other three contests: 256, 261 and 315.

In other words, it can be risky to wager on (or against) Tagovailoa. That being said, it’s impossible to envision the sixth-year pro not lighting up the Commanders’ secondary in Berlin on Sunday ... because every quarterback has lit up the Commanders’ secondary recently.

In Week 6, Caleb Williams threw for 252 yards. Then Dak Prescott went for 264 yards. Then Patrick Mahomes racked up 299 yards. Then Sam Darnold erupted for 330 yards. And last week, it was Jared Goff’s turn to have a field day, and he put up 320 yards.

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Also shredding Washington this season: Geno Smith (289 yards), Jordan Love (292) and Michael Penix Jr. (313).

That leaves Russell Wilson (168 yards in Week 1) and, oddly, Justin Herbert (166) as the only QBs who failed to torch the Commanders.

Bet: Tua Tagovailoa over 238.5 passing yards (-115)

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5, 49)

Feng: The Steelers are not a good football team. It’s a testament to the coaching ability of Mike Tomlin that he has this team slightly above NFL average based on my adjusted numbers from this season. However, Cincinnati is much worse. With data based on Joe Flacco, I have Cincinnati five points worse than NFL average, mainly driven by an awful defense that most likely won’t have edge Trey Hendrickson this week. In addition, I have Flacco as the sixth-best active QB based on my adjusted passing success rate. 

This is not sustainable for the 40-year-old QB with a nagging shoulder injury. My model has Pittsburgh by 6.8 points.

Bet: Steelers -5.5

Feng: Flacco gave Cincinnati an immediate reprieve from the turnover-prone Jake Browning, as Flacco didn’t throw a pick in his first three games as a Bengal. However, he had two interceptions last week against Chicago. 

My interception model looks at interceptions and passes defended, and this bad ball rate tends to be very predictive for a quarterback. This is why I still use data for Flacco with his other teams like Cleveland and Indianapolis in assigning the 61.8% chance he throws a pick against Pittsburgh.

Bet: Flacco over 0.5 INTs (-125)

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 48.5)

Jacob: Not so long ago, Justin Jefferson was one of the NFL’s most reliable touchdown scorers. To wit: The Vikings’ receiver kicked off the 2024 season with a five-game scoring streak and notched six touchdowns in his first seven games..

Since then? Jefferson has scored five times in 20 games (seven total TDs in all), and he’s endured two separate six-game scoreless droughts.

During this 20-game stretch, Jefferson has faced the Bears on three occasions. He scored in two of those contests, including the 2025 season opener in the Windy City.

Jefferson’s Week 1 touchdown is one of 20 aerial scores Chicago has surrendered this season. Only the Jaguars (21), Cowboys (22), Commanders (22) and Bengals (23) have allowed more touchdown receptions.

Bet: Justin Jefferson anytime TD (+120)

Los Angeles Chargers (-3, 43.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacob: You know the old adage, “Be careful betting on West Coast teams that have to play early games in the Eastern time zone”? The Chargers debunked it last season, going 4-1 SU and ATS in such games.

This year? Totally different story.

In Week 4, the Bolts took a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS record to the Meadowlands and lost 21-18 to Jackson Dart and the winless Giants as a 6-point favorite.

Two weeks later, Jim Harbaugh’s crew trekked to South Beach and barely held off the then-freefalling Dolphins 29-27, failing to cover as a 4-point favorite.

Finally, two weeks ago, Los Angeles went to Nashville as a 10-point favorite against the lowly Titans and prevailed 27-20.

Kickoff time in all three games: 1 p.m. ET.

Now the Chargers are crossing the country one more time, and yet again it’s a 1 p.m. ET start.

Four trips from Southern California to the East Coast in eight weeks is brutal. And the Jaguars are clearly the best opponent L.A. has faced in this situation.

It’s the same Jaguars team that defeated Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs 31-28 at home in Week 5 (albeit without Travis Hunter) — and the same Jaguars who will be fuming after blowing a 19-point, four-quarter lead in Houston a week ago.

Bet: Jaguars +3 (-115)

Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-3, 48.5)

Jacob: There are many ways to answer the question “How amazing has Matthew Stafford been this season?” Here’s one:

The 49ers rank 26th out of 32 teams in passing touchdowns allowed. Had they not faced Stafford twice — once in Week 5, once in Week 10 — they would rank eighth.

Yep, the Rams’ quarterback has accounted for nearly 37% of the TD passes thrown against San Francisco (seven of 19).

Stafford’s passing TD totals in his last six games: 3, 3, 1, 5, 4, 4.

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This week, Stafford takes on the Seahawks in a battle of teams tied atop the NFC West standings. Seattle has only given up 13 aerial scores this season — tied for 10th fewest in the NFL. And while the Seahawks have allowed two touchdown passes five times, they’ve never allowed more than two.

Of course, they haven’t faced Stafford yet.

Bet: Matthew Stafford over 2.5 passing TDs (+160)