Hello Yahoo! I’m Derek Carty of EV Analytics and the creator of THE BLITZ projection system, which if you have Yahoo+, you’ll notice is available this year to help you manage your teams. Each Friday morning, I’ll be digging into three players projected to play above their usual level, and three players projected to play below their usual level. (I’ll also be doing an AMA in the Yahoo Fantasy Discord every Thursday at 3 p.m. ET, so be sure to stop by, say hi, and get your questions answered).

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Last week’s list had more misses than hits, with Chris Olave catching a long TD and neither Lamar Jackson nor Rico Dowdle getting the expected game script. Parker Washington scored twice, though, so there was a silver lining. On to Week 11 …

RJ Harvey, RB, Broncos

THE BLITZ Week 11 Projection: 14.9 carries, 3.3 receptions, 89 yards, 0.53 TD

Week 11 vs. ROS: RB16 vs. RB35

Harvey hasn’t lived up to preseason expectations with J.K. Dobbins taking a firm hold of the RB1 role all year, but with Dobbins hurt and potentially even hitting IR, this week should finally be Harvey’s week to shine. He’s already been a significant part of Denver’s passing attack (9% target share), and he recently took over the third-down role, with his route share jumping from 29% to 43% over the past two weeks. Now, if we give him the bulk of the work on the ground, he projects as one of the better RB options this week.

Chase Brown, RB, Bengals

THE BLITZ Week 11 Projection: 15.8 carries, 4.0 receptions, 91 yards, 0.60 TD

Week 11 vs. ROS: RB10 vs. RB19

Samaje Perine left the Bengals' last game early with a high ankle sprain, was deemed week-to-week and hasn’t practiced this week yet. Aside from the Bengals offense as a whole being a let-down this year without Joe Burrow, the main thing keeping Chase Brown from being a fantasy RB1 has been the presence of Perine. He has taken on much of the passing work that Brown was getting last season, in particular playing in most passing-down situations and even taking a good amount of ground work as of late. For as long as Perine is out, the role for Brown should be huge, and we should probably expect production similar to what he did down the stretch in 2024.

Michael Wilson (and Greg Dortch), WR, Cardinals

THE BLITZ Week 11 Projection: 7.4 targets, 4.5 receptions, 59 yards, 0.35 TD

Week 11 vs. ROS: 12.9 PPR points vs. 9.1 PPR points per game

Zay Jones suffered a season-ending injury last week, and Marvin Harrison Jr. just underwent an appendectomy, leaving a ton of targets up for grabs in Arizona. The team has been very reluctant to use now-No. 3 wide receiver Xavier Weaver at all this year (he’s played just 3.6% of the team’s snaps), which could mean a lot of Wilson and Dortch behind (obviously) TE Trey McBride. While we’re just speculating how targets will be distributed, the team has very few alternative options, and you could do much worse for a temporary fill-in than one of these two guys.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions

Week 11 vs. ROS: WR8 vs. WR4

I wrote up Amon-Ra in this same spot last week, and his 5-58 line was about as ho-hum as expected (his second-fewest receptions, second-lowest target share and third-lowest yardage total all year), with a touchdown saving his fantasy day. The spot this week is similar, but worse. He remains on the road outdoors and in a game environment that projects very slow, with both Philly and Detroit running those offenses at a slow pace. I mentioned last week that St. Brown has a pronounced man/zone split and performs much better against zone defense, and Philly runs man shells at the highest rate in the NFL. Put it all together, and we should once again expect a solid game here, but probably below his usual standards.

Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Bengals

Week 11 vs. ROS: WR3 vs. WR1

Chase’s rest-of-season prospects are looking up with speculation that Joe Burrow could be ready to return sooner than later. This week, however, he might not even have Joe Flacco, who hasn’t practiced yet. A Jake Browning week would really throw some cold water on Chase’s prospects, especially since the matchup isn’t particularly appealing to begin with. THE BLITZ projects Chase’s true man/zone split as the widest of any fantasy-relevant WR in the league (strongly favoring zone), and Pittsburgh runs zone at a top-six rate. The game also currently projects for 18-mph wind, so Chase may not be quite as elite as usual.

Dillon Gabriel, QB, Browns

THE BLITZ Week 11 Projection: 35.0 attempts, 19.9 completions, 200 yards, 1.01 TD

Week 11 vs. ROS: 12.8 points vs. 14.6 points per game

Gabriel never projects well, but he projects as the stone-worst QB on the whole slate this week. The weather forecast in Cleveland is currently calling for 20-mph sustained winds and gusts up to 35 mph. And if he doesn’t play well (or at least competently), chances are rising that we see an in-game benching for Shedeur Sanders. Head coach Kevin Stefanski recently passed off play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Tommy Rees, and if that doesn’t get things moving, a benching would make sense as their next attempt. The coaching staff has already begun fielding questions from the media about a change at QB, and that typically means an actual change isn’t far behind.