Bailey County Commissioner Juan Chavez said he supported Sen. Hillary Clinton's presidential bid until about two weeks ago.
"But I switched to (Sen. Barack) Obama after he won 10 or 11 primaries in a row," Chavez said of the current front-runner in the Democratic Party's race for the White House. "I like to go with the winner."
Chavez is not alone.
His 11 siblings, all Bailey County residents, too, as well as some of his close friends also have switched to Obama, he said.
Recent opinion polls show the Illinois senator has been slowly but steadily gaining support among Texas Hispanics who not long ago seemed to overwhelmingly favor Clinton.
Sheila Harris of Lubbock, on the other hand, has supported Obama for about three months, long before the Iowa caucuses and the first presidential primary in New Hampshire in early January.
"I was open-minded at first no matter their color," Harris said. "But now my family and a lot of people I know are really excited about an African-American running for president."
Her daughter Asya best exemplifies such excitement, Harris said.
"She just turned 18 in December and is now registered to vote," Harris said. "She couldn't believe that her first vote would be for an African-American candidate for president."
Such comments do not surprise political analysts such as David Bositis.
"I haven't visited your state recently, but based on the polls I've seen, I think that one of every three voters in the Texas (Democratic) primary will be black," said Bositis, senior political analyst at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies. The center is a Washington think tank that specializes in African-American studies.
The overwhelming majority of blacks will vote for Obama, but Hispanics will split their vote between Clinton and Obama, Bositis said.
"People are really excited about his candidacy, especially African-Americans because Obama is the first African-American who has a really good chance of being elected president," Bositis said. "Many people, especially the older generation, never thought they could see that in their lifetime."
But not so fast says pollster Gary Reese.
Although Obama has made significant gains among blacks and Hispanics in Texas, Clinton seems to be rebounding, particularly among Hispanics and other likely Democratic voters, said Reese, CEO of Atlanta-based InsiderAdvantage/Morris News Service Opinion Poll.
The poll of 591 likely Texas Democratic voters, including 219 Hispanics, was conducted Wednesday and showed that in one day alone, the percentage of Spanish-surnamed voters supporting Clinton increased from 50 percent to 59 percent. A similar poll was conducted Tuesday.
The Wednesday poll also showed Clinton regaining other voters in the general population, mainly among the 30 to 44 age group where Obama has been strong, Reese said.
"People seem to be saying, wait a minute, let's not get carried away with this Obama excitement, let's take a good look at his record and see where he stands on the issues,' " Reese said. "And we see that particularly among Hispanics."
Tina Betts and Lubbock County Commissioner Ysidro Gutierrez were not polled by the InsiderAdvantage/Morris News Service poll but belong in the undecided camp.
"They are both very strong candidates," Betts said of Clinton and Obama.
If anything, Betts worries the recent bickering between the two senators could hurt the eventual Democratic presidential nominee in the November election.
"I am concerned about them attacking one another," she said.
Gutierrez, who also is running for re-election as Lubbock County Commissioner in the March 4 primary, said that although he supported Clinton for a long time, it is hard to ignore Obama's momentum.
"There is a lot of excitement about Barack Obama," he said. "Everywhere you go all you hear is Obama, Obama."
John David Rausch, associate professor of political science at West Texas A&M University, said the Clinton and Obama campaigns, as well as the media, have paid a great deal of attention to the Texas ethnic vote because more than half of all Democratic voters in the state are people of color.
And though in West Texas, Hispanics are more politically active than African-Americans, statewide blacks will have a stronger political muscle on the March 4 primary because they overwhelmingly support Obama, Rausch said.
Recent polls, including InsiderAdvantage/Morris News Service, show Obama getting roughly 80 percent of the black vote in Texas.
"It's such a nice voting block to have on your corner," he said. Clinton, on the other hand, does not have that kind of support among Hispanics.
Reed Welch, also an associate professor at West Texas A&M, calls Obama's appeal to black voters "identity politics."
"You'd like to think that race doesn't matter but it does," Welch said.
Lubbockonline.com
http://lubbockonline.com/stories/022908/loc_252299440.shtml
